Rivian’s official expected delivery number for 2025 is 97,000 vehicles, as stated in their latest earnings call and shareholder letter .
### Key Context Around This Target:
1. Manufacturing Shutdown Impact – A planned one-month shutdown in H2 2025 (Normal, IL plant) to prepare for R2 production could temporarily reduce output .
2. Supply Chain & Demand Risks –
– Q4 2024 saw higher tri-motor R1 and commercial van deliveries due to an Enduro motor component shortage, which may lower 2025 commercial deliveries .
– Weak demand in key markets (e.g., Los Angeles fires hurt Q1 2025 deliveries) .
3. R2 Launch (H1 2026) – The $45K R2 is expected to expand Rivian’s market but won’t contribute to 2025 volumes .
### No Official Revision (As of Latest Data)
– The 97K target remains unchanged, though management flagged “fluid” policy, regulatory, and demand risks that could affect it .
– Adjusted EBITDA guidance ($1.7B–$1.9B loss) assumes this delivery level .
For real-time updates, monitor Rivian’s next earnings call (likely Q1 2025). Let me know if you’d like deeper analysis on constraints (e.g., VW funding, R2 ramp).