Here’s Tesla’s Q3 2024 earnings forecast based on the latest available information:
Revenue:
– Expected range: $24.1-$24.6 billion (analyst consensus)
– Potential growth: 45-48% YoY (from $18.5B in Q3 2023)
– Automotive revenue: ~$20.5B (85% of total)
– Energy/other: ~$4B (record energy storage deployments)
Key Metrics:
1. Deliveries:
– Projected: 495,000-515,000 vehicles
– Model 3/Y: ~465,000 (refresh impact)
– Cybertruck: ~25,000 (ramping production)
– S/X: ~5,000
2. Margins:
– Automotive gross margin: 18.2-19.2%
– Energy margin: ~25% (record high)
– Overall gross margin: ~19%
3. Profitability:
– EPS estimate: $0.85-$0.92
– Net income: $2.8-$3.1B
Growth Drivers:
✓ Model Y refresh driving demand
✓ Energy storage deployments (+50% YoY)
✓ FSD take rate improvement (now ~20%)
✓ Cybertruck production ramp (5k+/week)
Challenges:
– Rising battery material costs
– Higher R&D spend ($1.1B expected)
– Macro pressures in key markets (EU/China)
What to Watch For:
1. AI/FSD progress (v12.5 rollout)
2. Optimus robot prototype updates
3. 4680 battery production scale
4. 2025 product roadmap hints
5. Mexico factory timeline
Analyst Expectations:
– 62% maintain Buy ratings
– Average PT: $280 (15% upside)
– Bull case: $330 (35% upside)
Guidance Focus:
– Full-year delivery target (2M vehicles)
– Energy business profitability
– 2024 capex ($8-9B range)
– FSD licensing partnerships
The earnings call will likely emphasize Tesla’s AI capabilities, energy business growth, and progress toward cheaper next-gen vehicles. Margins remain the key metric as Tesla balances growth investments with profitability.